Farmers’ Almanac and Weather

Sandra Dunham

The Almanac has provided weather predictions every year since 1818 (note that competitor Old Farmers’ Almanac has been around since 1792). There is hardly a person in North America who has not heard of it, and likely quoted it. According to the Farmers’ Almanac, Ontario, where I live, is in for a warm-to-hot, soggy season this year. But how accurate is it? Should I purchase a new umbrella and cancel my scheduled bike rally?

The Almanac claims an 80 to 85 percent accuracy record. It uses a “formula that has been time-tested, challenged and approved for centuries” and claims to be the “oldest source of consecutively published weather forecasts.” Sound too good to be true? 

Science followers would be correct to doubt the “closely guarded secret formula.” The Almanac is so proprietary about their formula that they claim only one person knows the formula and that person goes by a pseudonym to ensure the formula remains secret. It’s starting to sound like I should save my investment in umbrellas. 

According to David Phillips, a senior climatologist at Environment Canada, there is no science behind these predictions. “If you take one of the things they base their prediction on — sunspots — well, people have correlated sunspots with everything from church attendance to venereal disease. It’s one of those things people gravitate to in order to explain events using pseudo-science.” 

He goes on to say that what accuracy they have is largely because their predictions are… well… predictable. Much like astrology, they base their predictions on what is likely to happen. The media picks up on the times that they are accurate. 

Gardening

The Farmers’ Almanac contains some great information about gardening. However, it also has lots of misinformation about “gardening by the moon.” Recently, I was corrected when I indicated that I would plant my cold-intolerant seeds after the full moon following May 24. I had never questioned this information so I set about finding the truth. Of course, it is false. 

Calendars

The Farmers’ Almanac calendar tells us what things we should do on any given day. On the day that I am writing this, I should bake, cut firewood, mow (to increase growth), kill plant pests, hatch eggs, and dig holes. Who knew?

Full Moon Names

The Farmers’ Almanac provides what they claim to be the Native American names for each full moon in the year. (Note that a Blue Moon is either the second full moon in a month or the fourth full moon of a quarter.) In fact, according to Sky and Telescope, different Native American tribes had their own names for the moons. 

Likely you have heard some of these moon names on various weather stations. Possibly you have headed out to enjoy a moonlit walk by some. For the next year, CFIC will tell you what some of the full moons are called and why they have been given these names. Just for fun!

Is It Science?

I’m sure you have already come to a conclusion on this. However, I decided to compare what I learned about the Farmers’ Almanac with CFIC’s Is It Real Science? 

• The “author” (weather forecaster) works in isolation and is the only person in the world who knows the formula
• Claims are based on ancient knowledge
• The Almanac is self-published

Is It Harmful?

At one time I would have said that the Farmers’ Almanac (and horoscopes) were “just for fun.” I could not possibly imagine anyone taking them seriously. However, over time, I have come to learn that there are many people who really believe these things. Imagine them spending March 21 in search of holes to dig and firewood to cut. 

Perhaps more importantly, this pseudoscience makes its way into our belief systems. Since we are unable to test every message we get, we accept some as true. I accepted the notion that the date of the last frost was tied to the full moon. 

Misinformation is misinformation. Identifying it is the first step to inoculating yourself against it. Regardless of their claims of accuracy, if you are looking for a good weather forecast, we suggest Environment Canada or another reputable, science-based weather forecasting organization.