Last year we asked our board and leadership team to make some predictions for 2022. This year we asked them to comment on how accurate they were. While not all of them provided feedback, here’s what they said.
Our leader and President, Gus Lyn-Piluso, had only one prediction: He assured us that the Leafs would win the Stanley Cup in 2022. However, this year, Gus lets me know that there was a typo last year, he actually predicted the win for 2023.
Alex Kenjeev was much more serious. “Things will get worse before they get better, because technological and cultural forces will continue to overwhelm us. In the coming year, we’ll see more distractedness, more tribalism, and more polarization — at the cost of less deliberation, less fraternity, and less connection.” Although Alex is no longer living in Canada, and therefore no longer serving on the board, he generously provided feedback on his prediction: “Have we, in fact, seen a measurable increase in polarization, distractedness, and tribalism in 2022? Evidence is scant, and mixed, with room for cautious optimism.“ In the U.S., meanwhile, polarization and tribalism have increased dramatically, with a growing majority of people believing that those who disagree with them are dishonest, immoral, and hostile.
Anecdotally, the year also saw some glimmers of hope. Skeptics of all political leanings can celebrate the electoral defeat — by a wide margin — of the charlatan Dr. Oz by the people of Pennsylvania. Voters in the world’s fourth-largest democracy also resoundingly rejected the conspiracist Jair Bolsonaro.
Leslie Rosenblood, CFIC’s Secular Chair, gazed into his crystal ball at an issue that has been divisive in Canada — Quebec’s Bill 21, suggesting that regardless of the ruling of the Quebec Court of Appeals, at least one of the parties will seek to take the issue to the Supreme Court of Canada. “Though the Supreme Court declines to weigh in on most of the cases it is asked to hear, I believe the constitutionality of Bill 21 will be one of the issues it decides on (though likely not until 2023).”
Leslie stands by his previous prediction, modifying only the timeline: “Regardless of the outcome, it will be appealed to the Supreme Court, which will agree to hear the case. The timeline might stretch into 2024 or even 2025; the wheels of the justice system turn slowly.”
Sometimes the crystal ball comes with a bit of insider information. Leslie also predicted the launch of the Podcast for Inquiry, which was a “for sure” thing since it was well into the planning stage. For this reason, CFIC’s Executive Director of Development, Sandra Dunham, predicted that Leslie’s prediction would come true — which it did. However, in a bigger and better way than anyone imagined at the time. Sandra also predicted the launch of a new strategic plan for CFIC which was released in March of 2022.
CFIC Vice President Seanna Watson‘s prediction for 2022 was two-fold. “First, with much hopefulness, I predicted that the dominant strains of SARS-CoV-2 would have mutated to be as mild as the common cold. Second, rather facetiously, my forecast was that we would run out of Greek letters, and start using the Klingon alphabet instead.”
In reality, the virus continues to be full of surprises. Variants are different, but, sadly, still able to cause serious illness and death, particularly in unvaccinated people. SARS-CoV-2 appears to have found a winning formula with Omicron, currently the only lineage classed by the WHO as a “variant of concern,” so there are still lots of Greek letters left.
Board member Edan Tasca wondered about the future of climate change. Recent announcements about fusion suggest that we may have a sustainable solution for greenhouse gas emissions in the future. Until then he continues to hope that common sense and science will win and we will stop fearing nuclear power.
“I stand by my comments of last year — nuclear is safer than oil and coal. I regret that we have not moved farther forward on this in spite of increasing weather events that make it difficult for even the most anti-science communities to continue to deny global warming. And I’m proud to continue to be involved with CFIC. This tiny organization has literally saved the life of Omer who will soon join us in Canada. And, as Managing Editor of Critical Links, I’ve enjoyed learning about science and secularism, thanks to our great writers.”
Zack Dumont is CFIC’s Science Chair. These were his predictions for 2022.
- COVID enters endemic phase
- Saskatchewan VIDO laboratory COVID vaccine is approved
- McDonald’s Canada brings the McRib back
Although he’s great at science, Zack is really lousy at the crystal ball. However, he offers this: “One of the beautiful things about science is that being wrong is part of the process. And I unabashedly declare I was most certainly wrong with my predictions! COVID did not technically enter the endemic phase, though we humans sure are acting like it. I mostly blame less-than-ideal vaccination rates… resulting in unneeded mutations and variants. My family and I still mask in public. Saskatchewan VIDO lab did not seek vaccine approval. About this, I was just plainly wrong. Turns out VIDO will not pursue becoming a commercial vaccine producer; instead, they’ll continue to focus on manufacturing discovered vaccines (from universities or small biotech companies who don’t have the infrastructure for their own manufacturing facility).”
McDonalds did not bring the McRib to Canada. But, thankfully, I did make it to the U.S. in November to be part of the farewell tour.
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